The Wild Future of Commerce & The Rise of Conformative Software
Let’s explore some of the wilder ideas for the future of commerce and how software will become more tailor-made for each of us as we use it.
Edition #27 of Implications
This edition explores forecasts and implications around: (1) wild expectations for the future of commerce, (2) the era of “conformative software” that becomes more tailor-made as you use it, and (3) some surprises at the end, as always.
If you’re new, here’s the rundown on what to expect. This ~monthly analysis is written for founders + investors I work with, colleagues, and a select group of subscribers. I aim for quality, density, and provocation vs. frequency and trendiness. We don’t cover news; we explore the implications of what’s happening. My goal is to ignite discussion, socialize edges that may someday become the center, and help all of us connect dots.
If you missed more recent editions of Implications, check out recent analysis and archives here. A few recommendations based on reader engagement:
A few things I expect to see in 2025, from investigative journalists leveraging betting markets to top AI talent shifting from working in the companies pioneering AI to taking leadership roles in the industries that will benefit most from AI.
The topic of augmented reality (AR) right now feels a lot like AI felt ~2016 when everyone knew AI would be important for the mainstream but the building blocks just weren’t there yet. We’re getting closer…
The rise of “cognicos” - Until now, humans have been the reasoning layer of every organization, but a new era of cognition-driven companies will change companies as we know them.
Wild expectations for the future of commerce.
One part of daily life likely to feel entirely different within a few years is commerce. Our digital commerce experiences will be hyper-personalized; we’ll be presented with a selection that feels catered to our preferences and accounts for past purchases. Our AI-powered agents will make pre-approved payments and micro-payments on our behalf and will generally make day-to-day commerce more seamless than ever. New “on the fly UIs (user interfaces)” will simplify choices, catering to our needs while obfuscating (aka disrupting) the underlying brands and providers. And the AI on our devices will protect us from anything fraudulent, proactively warn us of scams, and assist us in finding good deals by evaluating customer feedback and consumer reports before every purchase. In short, commerce is going to feel very different.
Context-based purchase decisions. Imagine every purchase decision - from food items and vitamins to wardrobe and accessories - being framed in the context of your diet, what you’ve purchased before, or what is recommended based on a deep analysis of your life and preferences. When you want to buy something, your personal AI will make the best recommendation and explain why. Of course, in the process you will begin to care less about the brand (and potentially be less persuaded by marketing) as you begin to trust your personalize AI (given its context and reasoning) more than any other signal.
Pricing will become hyper-personalized based on our loyalty, preferences, and willingness to pay. Imagine special offers extended to customers based on, among other ideas, their taste, influence on social platforms, and their viral co-efficient (i.e. their willingness to share information about their purchase in ways that yields other customers, a measure that could certainly be determined from past purchases in the age of AI). AI-driven pricing is a fascinating and somewhat disconcerting phenomenon about to gain new dimensions and go mainstream.
On-the-fly UI & text-based-commerce will increasingly grab a share of our daily commerce experiences. Imagine telling your OS-level AI companion - or some other AI Agent - that you need to buy protein shakes or want to book a trip to visit a friend in Boston. Instead of going to a marketplace like Amazon or a travel website, the AI experience can serve you a custom interface (like a mini ephemeral app made just for you in this moment) that helps you browse choices and make decisions. In doing so, this “on-the-fly UI” will present everything in the context of your preferences. You may not even see or care about the brands involved or who is actually fulfilling the product or service. The same thing will happen with the next generation of commercial texting/messaging. These experiences will shift from being spammy annoyances to being extraordinarily helpful once they become super-intelligent and actionable. While I happen to HATE text messages from stores or brands, what if texting with a brand is more akin to a personal shopper that has worked with you for years, remembers your preferences (whether your wardrobe or otherwise), and can really engage with you personally and act on your behalf?
A return to non-scalable one-on-one attention from fellow humans in hospitality-driven experiences and the final mile of any purchase. I’ve been anticipating, in previous editions of Implications (like this one on “the meaning economy”), that human jobs would shift towards less scalable areas that are differentiating for brands, and support is surprisingly one of these areas. I am not talking about call centers, but I do love the idea of real people helping you make decisions or devoting their time to make your experience magical. I have long believed that the science of business is scaling, and the art of business is things that don’t scale. With the massive savings of automating customer support and many other functions of the enterprise with AI, there will be a drive to differentiate customer experience and brand with good old-fashioned relationship-driven human attention. There will be more time for the art of business.
“AI will haggle for you, but smartly.” This was an insight from Greg Isenberg, who shared a collection of other thoughts about the future of commerce in his newsletter, a few of which I wanted to add to the list. In this case, AI informing multiple merchants of your intention to purchase something, and then allowing those merchants to bid for your business.
More scarcity-driven merchandising in the age of abundance. Several friends have recently mentioned the growing phenomenon, especially in the high-end handbag industry, of no longer allowing real-time purchase of high-end goods and instead requiring “indications of interest” in purchasing these items “when they become available.” My theory of abundance is that when anything becomes ubiquitous - whether content or anything else – it drives the human desire for scarcity. As shoes are commoditized, we buy higher end shoes, etc. But what if our access to something special and scarce becomes less about affordability or waiting around after “indicating interest” and more about merit? Greg Isenberg called this “skill-locked commerce,” the idea of gating purchases based on abilities or some status achieved through merit — and the belief that the earned privilege to buy something will increase desire and activate purchases. What if we needed to solve a riddle or prove something to gain access to a particular good or service? What if you needed to run 20+ miles per week to get access to a certain pair of shoes? What if you needed a certain level of social following to get access to a premium collection? What if you could only watch a particular film in person for a limited time, perhaps only after watching the prequel and answering a set of questions? I think this is a fascinating area of human behavior and commerce to explore in the age of abundance.
Conformative Software, and the end of lowest-common-denominator user experiences.
There is a new variant of mainstream software I see on the horizon that could change consumer and enterprise software as we know it. While we’ve covered “DIY software” (where you can use products like Replit or Cursor to generate applications for all sorts of purposes) in previous editions of Implications, conformative software is different. Conformative software is a new wave of apps that become more tailor-made the more you use them. They are designed and built with a new form of accommodative user interfaces that adjust to your skill level, your needs, and your preferences. Functionality and complication can vary by user. This new variant of products literally conforms to each user, using AI to leverage data and preferences about the user to instantly generate and modify the interface, features, and user experience.
The greatest implication of conformative applications is the chance to FINALLY defy the infamous Silicon Valley/Alley product lifecycle: A simple product launches, users flock to the simple product, the simple product adds features (aka complexity) for power users and monetization, and then users flock to a different simple product. This seemingly endless cycle has fueled a pattern of apps replacing apps replacing apps for decades. But what if conformative generative applications end this cycle with applications that become more of what you want and less of what you don't…the more you use them? These apps could remain forever simple for new adopters, while getting more and more sophisticated for longtime users.
A great example just happened with the update of the Apple Photos app on our iPhones. Many of us iOS customers were dismayed by the added dose of complexity in a once simple Photos app. While some customers were probably satisfied by the new capabilities introduced around photo editing, organization, and collaboration, many others were confused. Herein lies the problem of developing software for more and more customers: It becomes increasingly difficult to make any one customer completely satisfied. When you have more customers with ever-evolving and diverse needs, and seek to remain competitive in market by adding more features, most products become overly complex. It’s actually kind of bonkers that applications require the lowest-common-denominator of features and accessibility to be successful. I imagine a world where app interfaces are no longer shared experiences, but rather hyper-personalized. As one X friend remarked when I first shared this idea a few weeks ago, “we’re gonna have to break in software like we break in shoes.”
Ideas, Missives & Mentions
Finally, here’s a set of ideas and worthwhile mentions (and stuff I want to keep out of web-scraper reach) intended for those I work with (free for founders in my portfolio, Adobe folks…ping me!) and a smaller group of subscribers. We’ll cover a few things that caught my eye and have stayed on my mind (including the premium of “cooked compute,” feedback on cognicos, “personalization effects” as the new network effect, and a few other thoughts as a builder/angel investor). Subscriptions go toward organizations I support including the Museum of Modern Art. Thanks again for following along, and to those who have reached out with ideas and feedback.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Implications, by Scott Belsky to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.