In between holiday travels here, sharing a few things I expect to see in 2025…
(1) A new wave of investigative journalists will break news via betting markets. We learned in the election that betting markets are, in most cases, more accurate than professional polling and news reports of voting trends. While there seems to be no disincentive for spreading false information these days on social media, people act differently when money is on the line. Making a wild claim? Put money on it. Don’t think vaccines work, make the claim alongside a bet and we’ll see how you fare! The general population may benefit from bottom-line-driven fact checking and the use of betting markets to suss out the truth of what is really happening. New mechanics for reconciling the veracity of news (mutually agreed upon objective measures, etc) will emerge when money is on the line. I think we’ll see a new cohort of investigative journalists and researchers become wealthy news sleuths by sourcing proprietary ins…
